The Kansas City Chiefs are reeling with a 1-3 straight up record over their last four games and head to Foxborough this week as 9.5-point road favorites vs. the New England Patriots, who are coming off a rare win and extra rest.
With the public perception a little high on this New England offense after last week, are bettors getting a second-half total at the highest possible price heading into the weekend?
I break down the NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for the Chiefs vs. Patriots on December 17.
Chiefs vs Patriots odds
Chiefs vs Patriots predictions
The entire betting community knows the Kansas City Chiefs are one of the worst second-half-scoring teams in football, but it’s still a market that doesn’t see a lot of liquidity early in the week. With books posting the second-half total at 17.5 (-110 to the Under), it’s time to continue to fade K.C.’s second-half totals that are 16-4 to the Under over its last 20 games.
The Chiefs are averaging 7.2 2H points per game this year — ranking 29th in the league — which is two spots better than the New England Patriots who average 6.0 (tied for the league-worst).
The Patriots’ offensive struggles aren’t reserved just for the second half, either, as they’re the lowest-scoring team in football at 13.0 ppg.
Last week is not swaying me in that this is a better offense with Bailey Zappe. The Steelers’ defense made some half-time adjustments and the New England quarterback attempted just seven second-half passes, took a sack, had an interception, and led the team to zero points.
It’s an offense that still has question marks around a plethora of skilled players in Rhamondre Stevenson, Demario Douglas, DeVante Parker, and Kayshon Boutte who all missed Week 14. Zappe also currently ranks 45th of 47 QBs in RBSDM’s EPA+CPOE composite rankings. There is a reason their team total is set at 13.5.
The Chiefs also don’t have an easy task to score points. New England’s defense has been the lowest scoring since Week 9 and ranks fifth in EPA/play over that stretch with the No. 1 rush defense.
Isiah Pacheco’s shoulder injury could certainly linger into the weekend, meaning a weak tandem of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon could be on display Sunday. The duo gained 58 yards on 15 carries last week vs. the Bills.
K.C. could be milking the clock in the final 30, especially if the Pats’ offense does nothing vs. this legit defense. If New England is down double digits late, the field-goal unit could be getting a rest and any 2H red-zone turnover on downs would be glorious for the Under.
There are plenty of outs here for another low-scoring second half as the Under could still hit with the Chiefs scoring 14 points. If this is another slog of a game from New England (last week being the exception), the live 2H line could easily be much pricier than -110 or even fall to 16.5.
My best bet: Second half Under 17.5 (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
MORE NFL FREE PICKS
Chiefs vs Patriots same-game parlay
Second-half Under 19.5Justin Watson Over 17.5 receiving yardsPatrick Mahomes Over 22.5 yards rushing
+575 at bet365
The 2H Under is my favorite bet but at bet365, the choices are 16.5 and 19.5 so I took the safer route. Justin Watson is still running as the No. 2 and leads at the WRs in air-yard share. He can get this done in one play and the Pats are too tough to run against. With the way the ball is distributed, I’m happy to take the Overs on modest totals.
Patrick Mahomes might be playing with the lead but running on passing downs late in the game with a lead is more common than bettors expect. He’s rushed for at least 20 yards in 10 of his 13 games so there is a solid floor here with this prop.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Best NFL bonuses
All UsersBet $20 in NFL same-game parlaysGet $10 in bonus bets! Claim Now
All Users50% boost for 3+ leg parlay/SGPe.g. +400 BOOSTS to +520! Claim Now
All Users50% boost 4+ leg parlay/SGPe.g. +300 BOOSTS to +450! Claim Now
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
